Military aircraft maintenance costs will increase by 1.4% per year between now and 2035, reaching $111 billion

According to a study by Oliver Wyman, global spending on maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) for military aircraft, which has been stagnant for six years, will reach $111 billion by 2035, with annual growth of 1.4%. This increase is mainly due to the growing integration of advanced aircraft such as the F-35, which, although technologically superior, require more complex and costly maintenance operations. Rapidly expanding drones are also contributing to this increase in costs. Air forces must adapt their budgetary and logistical strategies to maintain their operational effectiveness.

Military MRO market trends: moderate but steady growth

In 2025, the global market for military aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) is estimated at approximately $97 billion. After a six-year period of stagnation, average annual growth of 1.4% is forecast, bringing spending to over $111 billion by 2035.

This increase is attributed to the growing integration of technologically advanced aircraft into military fleets. These aircraft, while more efficient, require more complex and costly maintenance operations.

At the same time, the civil MRO market is growing faster, with an annual increase of 2.7% expected, reaching $156 billion in 2035.

This divergence highlights the specific challenges faced by the armed forces, particularly in terms of technological complexity and operational requirements.

The impact of the F-35 on maintenance costs

The F-35 Lightning II, developed by Lockheed Martin, is a fifth-generation stealth fighter equipped with advanced technologies such as stealth, integrated sensors, and sophisticated propulsion systems. Currently, approximately 1,170 F-35s have been delivered worldwide, with plans to acquire 1,763 units for the US Air Force.

In 2025, the F-35 will account for 2.2% of the global military aircraft fleet, but this figure is expected to reach 4.7% by 2035. However, its share of global MRO spending is disproportionate, rising from 4.5% in 2025 to 9.5% in 2035.

This increase is due to the complexity of the aircraft, which requires more frequent and specialized maintenance operations. For example, maintenance costs for the F-35 engine have increased by $38 billion due to operational constraints.

These additional costs pose budgetary challenges for air forces, which must balance investments in new aircraft with the maintenance of existing fleets.

The rise of drones and its implications for maintenance

Drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), are playing an increasingly important role in military operations. Over the past five years, major air forces have added 350 drones to their fleets, bringing the total to more than 1,400. This number is expected to more than double to 3,460 by 2035.

The increased use of drones, particularly in conflicts such as the one in Ukraine, is driving up MRO spending. Modern drones, equipped with advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and sophisticated navigation systems, require specialized maintenance operations.

For example, Ukraine plans to produce 4.5 million drones by 2025, demonstrating the growing importance of these aircraft in military operations.

This rapid expansion poses challenges in terms of maintenance, personnel training, and spare parts management.

Rising maintenance costs for complex aircraft

So-called “complex” aircraft, such as the Airbus A400M Atlas and the NHIndustries NH90 helicopter, currently account for 11% of global military fleets. This figure is expected to reach 17% by 2035.

These aircraft, equipped with advanced technologies, require more frequent and specialized maintenance operations. As a result, the share of MRO spending on these aircraft within NATO forces will increase from 16% in 2025 to 26% in 2035.

This increase highlights the need for armed forces to adequately plan and budget for the maintenance of these aircraft to ensure their operational availability.

Budgetary and strategic implications for air forces

The increase in military aircraft maintenance costs has significant budgetary implications. Air forces must balance investments in new aircraft with the maintenance of existing fleets.

For example, the US Air Force has reduced the number of flight hours budgeted for its aircraft, potentially affecting operational availability.

In addition, dependence on manufacturers for maintenance can lead to additional costs. Air forces must therefore assess the advantages and disadvantages of outsourcing maintenance versus training internal personnel.

Finally, managing supply chains for spare parts is becoming crucial, especially for older aircraft whose parts may no longer be in production.

Outlook and recommendations

In light of these challenges, several recommendations emerge:

• Proactive budget planning: Armed forces must anticipate maintenance costs and incorporate them into their long-term budgets.
• Staff training: Investing in training specialized technicians for the maintenance of advanced aircraft is essential.
• Supply chain management: Establish partnerships with reliable and diversified suppliers to ensure the availability of spare parts.
• Evaluate maintenance strategies: Analyze the benefits of outsourcing versus in-house maintenance to optimize costs and efficiency.

By adopting these measures, air forces can better manage rising maintenance costs while maintaining operational effectiveness.

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