Ukraine and France sign a letter of intent for 100 Rafale fighter jets: a strategic agreement fraught with financial, industrial, and geopolitical doubts.
Summary
On November 17, 2025, the Élysée Palace in Paris witnessed the signing of a letter of intent between the Ukrainian Air Force and the French Air Force for the acquisition of up to 100 Rafale aircraft over a period of approximately ten years. This strong political commitment paves the way for a “future contract” but does not constitute a firm agreement. The potential cost of over €20 billion, excluding weapons, training, and maintenance, raises the question of financing: who will pay? In addition, the industrial capacities of the manufacturer Dassault Aviation are already heavily utilized, resulting in long delivery times. Finally, on the geopolitical front, the agreement has triggered critical reactions from Russia and reignited concerns about Ukrainian governance. It is certainly a strategic pact, but its implementation remains subject to multiple variables.
The agreement: nature, scope, and official discourse
In the presence of Presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron, France and Ukraine signed a “letter of intent” providing for the possible sale of 100 Rafale fighter jets, along with weapons, drones, and air defense systems. The Elysée Palace specified that these were not firm contracts, but a political commitment for the next ten years.
Ukraine, at war since 2022, intends to modernize its air force, break away from its Soviet legacy, and align itself with Western standards. By signing this agreement, France affirmed its role with Kyiv and also aimed to strengthen its own position in the export market.
However, the signed text does not yet provide specific details on financing, timing, or production, leading some observers to say that this letter could remain a long-term goal with no guarantees of execution.
Financing and implementing the project: a major financial challenge
The absence of a firm contract
The legal form of the commitment is a letter of intent, not a firm purchase contract. It commits the parties to a “reciprocal vision” but does not set a final price or a guaranteed timetable. The Elysée Palace points out that this type of agreement may never come to fruition or may only be partially implemented.
This absence immediately reduces the operational scope of the project: until the contract is signed, industrial planning, pilot training, and integration into the Ukrainian Air Force remain on hold.
Estimated cost and Ukrainian capabilities
The figure put forward for the potential purchase is in the region of more than €20 billion, excluding weapons, training, maintenance, and logistics. Some even estimate the total cost at €30 billion or more, depending on the exact configuration of the Rafale and the weapons package.
However, the Ukrainian economy has been severely weakened by the war: a fall in gross domestic product, massive destruction of infrastructure, and constant need for international support. This raises the question: who will pay?
Three options are being discussed:
- the use of Russia’s frozen assets, estimated at around €140 billion, but their mobilization remains politically and legally blocked.
- a European loan or subsidy mechanism, such as the SAFE (Security Action for Europe) facility, which could mobilize up to €150 billion, but without a specific timetable.
- Direct or indirect support from France or other allied states, but French budgets are constrained: for example, the draft budget for aid to Ukraine for 2025 was only €120 million, a drop in the ocean compared to the needs.
Without clarification of these sources of funding, the agreement risks remaining a long-term promise with no immediate impact.
The risk of inertia and non-implementation
Critics argue that the agreement could become a “glossy brochure”, or a dead letter, if funding does not follow through or if the industrial chain fails to respond. Such a scenario is not unprecedented in the arms industry, where many letters of intent go unfulfilled.
Consequently, both Ukraine and France will have to transform this political commitment into firm contracts, specify deadlines, mobilize funds, and trigger orders. Without this, the political cost could be significant for both Kyiv and Paris.
Deadlines and industrial capacity: the crux of implementation
A French industry already at full capacity
The main manufacturer is Dassault Aviation, maker of the Rafale. Its production capacity is limited: at the end of 2025, the export order book remains full, with around 239 aircraft still to be delivered to various customers (53 for France and 186 for export).
The current production rate is around two aircraft per month (i.e., 22 per year over 11 months of production) at the Mérignac plant. The plan is to increase this to three per month in 2026, then four per month in 2028-2029, but this will require significant ramp-up efforts.
If Ukraine confirms an order for 100 Rafales, this would represent approximately 5 to 6 years of production at the current full rate, not counting deliveries to other buyers and training series. This already poses a major bottleneck.
Delivery schedule and operational impact
Even if the agreement turns into a firm order, the first deliveries to Ukraine are not expected for several years. The French ministry has mentioned a timeframe of at least three years before deliveries can begin, mainly due to the training of Ukrainian pilots and mechanics and the installation of logistical infrastructure.
This timeline means that the Rafale will not be directly involved in the current battle against Russia on the Ukrainian front, but rather in the regeneration of the Ukrainian air force in the medium term, or even after the war. This limits the immediate scope of the effort, even if the symbolism is strong.
Industrial and supply chain risks
Beyond production, there are significant logistical challenges: training pilots and technicians, transferring know-how, setting up a maintenance network, and managing ammunition and spare parts. Each Rafale requires complex support.
In addition, the delivery of such a large volume will depend on French industrial and export priorities, investment capacity, and the stability of financing. Any delay could lead to a postponement of the agreement or a reduction in the quantity ordered.
Geopolitical reactions and strategic implications
Russia’s reaction
The signing of the agreement provoked a strong reaction from Moscow. The Kremlin described France’s commitment as contributing to the “militarization” of the Ukrainian conflict and a dangerous escalation. According to Moscow, the delivery of latest-generation fighter jets does not fundamentally change the situation on the front lines.
This type of agreement reinforces geopolitical polarization: it demonstrates that France and Ukraine intend to make this partnership a long-term one, but it may also prompt Russian responses in terms of armament, cyber warfare, or retaliatory strikes.
France’s role and industrial interests
For France, this agreement serves a dual purpose: it signals strategic support for Ukraine and enables French industry to consolidate its exports of multi-mission fighter jets. However, some analysts point out that France must balance this commitment with its own budgetary and industrial constraints.
In this context, the agreement also appears to be a signal to competitors (notably Sweden, which has signed a letter of intent for 100-150 Gripen E aircraft). France is positioning itself to remain a major player in the renewal of European fleets.
Governance and corruption in Ukraine
Another controversial issue concerns governance processes in Ukraine. France has publicly stated that Ukraine’s integration into the European Union also requires rigorous monitoring of corruption issues.
In a context where large parts of the Ukrainian economy have been weakened by the war and where reconstruction will be major, the acquisition of Western equipment depends on transparency and guarantees of control. Without this, there is a risk of misinvestment or misappropriation, which would undermine the reliability of the Rafale delivery and France’s image.
Summary of points of friction and realistic doubts
Unclear financing and significant budgetary uncertainty
One of the most significant obstacles is the lack of a credible financing plan. Ukraine cannot bear such an expense alone in a context of war. France has not allocated a massive budget for this order. The mechanisms mentioned (frozen Russian assets, European SAFE loan) remain hypothetical. This creates a vacuum that could delay or cancel the agreement.
Industrial capacity under pressure
Even if financing is secured, the French production line still needs to ramp up substantially. Adding an order for 100 Rafales to other existing orders creates significant industrial stress. The several-year lead time before delivery means a delayed impact.
Timing unsuitable for the ongoing war
The agreement comes at a time when Ukraine urgently needs supplies, aircraft, and immediate strikes. However, the Rafale does not appear to be a quick solution for the current front. Rather, it is part of a long-term perspective. There is therefore a tension between tactical urgency and strategic realities.
Political factor and credibility
The fact that the agreement is political and not contractual opens the door to criticism: if nothing comes of it, Ukraine could be perceived as having promised more than it can deliver, and France as having launched a publicity stunt. This could also weaken Paris’s position in future export deals.
Ukrainian governance and operational reliability
The purchase of high-tech equipment requires a high level of governance, maintenance, training, and sustainability. Doubts remain about Ukraine’s ability to absorb, maintain, and take full advantage of a modern fleet of Western fighter jets. This operational and institutional dimension is often underestimated.
Scenarios for future developments and challenges
Optimistic scenario: agreement converted and delivered in the long term
If funding is released (Russian assets, European loans, French aid) and if the French industrial chain accelerates, then delivery could begin in the late 2020s or early 2030s. Ukraine would then have a modernized Rafale fleet, capable of aligning with Western-class aviation and contributing to regional deterrence. This would also consolidate the France-Ukraine relationship.
Intermediate scenario: reduction in quantity or extended delay
Perhaps more realistic: the order is reduced to fewer than 100 aircraft, or even spread out over more than ten years. The first deliveries would then be at the end of the decade and the operational impact would remain limited. The agreement would have a symbolic effect but less of a concrete one.
Pessimistic scenario: letter of intent without follow-up
If financing fails, industrialization is delayed, or the Ukrainian crisis evolves into a ceasefire without a clear resolution, then the letter could remain an unfulfilled promise. Ukraine would remain with incomplete air capabilities, France would suffer a blow to its industry, and the political message would be weakened.
Challenges for French industry and strategy
Regardless of the scenario, the agreement illustrates the tension between industrial ambitions, military strategy, budgetary constraints, and geopolitical realities. For France, it is a gamble on the future of its Rafale aircraft, its export role, and European defense integration. For Ukraine, it is a strong signal but also a long-term commitment.
Challenges for Ukraine and its aviation trajectory
For Ukraine, the acquisition of latest-generation fighter jets goes hand in hand with the modernization of its armed forces, Western standardization, dependence on allies, and the management of advanced aviation. It also poses the challenge of maintenance, pilot training, and logistics in a country still at war.
The path between the signing of this letter of intent and the actual realization of a fleet of 100 Rafales is fraught with numerous obstacles. The time factor will play a decisive role: the current war demands rapid responses, while this project is part of a ten-year plan. France’s role in this matter is important, but depends both on its ability to mobilize funding and to support its industry. It remains to be seen whether this promise will reach Ukrainian hangars or remain a diplomatic signal with little immediate impact.
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