Faced with a recruitment crisis and astronomical costs, the USAF is retiring more aircraft than it is purchasing. “Divest to Invest”: a high-risk strategy for soldiers on the ground.
Summary
In 2024-2025, the United States Air Force (USAF) embarked on a vast plan to reduce its workforce and phase out conventional aircraft in response to a persistent recruitment crisis and rising maintenance costs. As part of this plan, the Fairchild A-10 Thunderbolt II (A-10 Warthog) fleet and several generations of F-15s and F-16s are being retired much faster than new fighters—F-35s or future 6th generation aircraft—are being produced. This policy, presented under the slogan “Divest to Invest,” is betting on the technologies of tomorrow. But by sacrificing proven aircraft, the USAF could well be betraying the soldiers on the ground who are losing their air support — and undermining its actual ability to operate in high-intensity warfare.
The quantitative decline of the USAF: a shrinking inventory
Since the end of the Cold War, the USAF has steadily reduced the size of its fleet. According to a report published in 2025, the US combat fleet now has approximately 2,026 fighters, compared to more than 4,253 at the end of the 1980s.
In 2024, the USAF announced its intention to retire 250 aircraft in one year, including A-10s, F-15C/Ds, F-15Es, some F-16s, as well as transport aircraft, tankers, and support helicopters.
This plan brings the total inventory below 5,000 aircraft, an unprecedented threshold in the history of the US Air Force.
The USAF justifies this reduction by its desire to modernize the fleet, improve quality rather than quantity, and focus resources on future programs.
The withdrawal of the A-10 Warthog: symbol of a radical shift
The most emblematic case of this reduction is that of the A-10 Warthog. Designed for close air support and dethroned as a “tank killer,” the aircraft is in the process of being completely withdrawn. The USAF plans to retire the 162 remaining A-10s by fiscal year 2026, two years earlier than previously planned.
In 2024, at least 39 A-10s have already been sent to the “boneyard,” a long-term storage facility.
The overall plan is to retire up to 340 aircraft of all types (attack aircraft, fighters, tankers, helicopters, transport aircraft) by the end of the decade.
The USAF’s argument is that the A-10 is “too vulnerable” on a modern battlefield saturated with advanced air defense systems.
But the aircraft remains popular with ground units for its 30mm GAU-8/A cannon, its ability to operate at low altitudes, and its effectiveness in Close Air Support (CAS).
The hasty withdrawal of the A-10—without a clearly identified direct replacement—leaves a significant tactical void in ground troop support.
A worsening crisis of personnel and availability
Added to this reduction in the fleet is a major human resources problem. For years, the USAF has suffered from a shortage of pilots, estimated at around 2,000 vacancies, more than half of which are in fighter units.
It takes years to train a combat pilot. Reducing the number of aircraft without ensuring a proportionate replacement of pilots amounts to reducing the strategic depth of the air force.
At the same time, the number of flight hours is decreasing, which affects the operational competence of crews, weakens their familiarity with the aircraft, and compromises their ability to carry out complex missions.
The withdrawal of the A-10s and F-15/Es, combined with a low rate of acquisition of new aircraft (less than 60 fighters per year compared to an initial target of 72), is creating a critical gap in the USAF’s ability to maintain a ready force.
“Divest to Invest”: selling to finance the future, a bet on the future
The strategy adopted by the USAF is often referred to as “Divest to Invest”: selling or retiring older aircraft to redirect resources to new programs—drones, 6th generation stealth aircraft, electronic warfare, space capabilities, etc.
In the 2026 plan, the USAF has reduced purchases of F-35s and increased those for other emerging technologies, such as autonomous combat drones and future air superiority aircraft.
Officials say this modernization is necessary to confront adversaries of comparable strength, equipped with sophisticated arsenals, modern air defenses, and capabilities to contest air and space.
But this gamble is based on the assumption that these future technologies will be delivered on time, perform as expected, and be able to replace the concrete capabilities currently provided by proven, robust, versatile aircraft such as the A-10.
The risks of a capability gap for ground troops
Removing the A-10s means removing one of the pillars of close air support (CAS). Several experts warn that the USAF risks betraying ground soldiers, who depended on this support to neutralize enemy armor, fortifications, or positions in direct contact.
Without a credible replacement focused on CAS—whether an aircraft, drone, or configuration capable of engaging in a contested environment—these units would have to find other ways to cope or rely on allies, which would undermine tactical coherence.
Furthermore, reducing the number of aircraft and crews diminishes strategic depth: in the event of a prolonged war or heavy losses, the USAF could lack the means to replenish its forces, as it will take several years to train new pilots and produce new aircraft.
Recent experience—asymmetric conflicts, high-intensity wars, anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) threats—shows that the versatility, robustness, and rapid availability of simple, specialized aircraft remain crucial. By sacrificing them, the Air Force is betting big on an uncertain future.
The USAF’s arguments: a different future, an agile force
For USAF leaders, downsizing is not a step backward but an adaptation. They argue that the world has changed: wars will no longer be like those in Iraq or Afghanistan, but high-intensity conflicts against technologically advanced adversaries. In this context, quality, stealth, connectivity, and advanced electronics are more important than the raw number of aircraft.
They argue that maintaining a large and costly fleet weakens the financial margins for innovation. Disengagement would free up billions for the development of hypersonic weapons, autonomous drones, space and cyber capabilities.
Finally, the USAF is banking on a more “agile” force, capable of reinventing itself, integrating into coalitions, and relying on distributed technologies rather than a traditional massive strike force.
An uncertain gamble: when modernity comes at a high price
The “smaller, more modern” strategy is based on some heavy assumptions. First, that future programs will be delivered on time and without major cost overruns. However, the recent history of US military aviation shows that delays, cost overruns, and cancellations are common.
Second, that current tactical requirements—ground support, proximity missions, immediate availability—can be met by systems that are yet to be developed. This remains speculative.
Third, that in the event of a major conflict, the reduction in personnel will not compromise the ability to conduct prolonged operations simultaneously in multiple theaters. With a rejuvenated but smaller fleet, this balance becomes unstable.
Changing scale, doctrine, and structure may sometimes be necessary. But in this case, the USAF is not just modernizing; it is divesting itself. The “Divest to Invest” gamble is also a bet on the future—an uncertain future, often far removed from the tactical realities of soldiers on the ground. The risk is that, in this race for modernity, the Air Force will lose what makes it powerful: reliability, immediate availability, and support for the troops.
The gamble could pay off. Or it could reveal a gaping hole in the US air posture at a time when the world could be on the brink of change.
Sources
Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies report – “Want Combat Airpower? Then Fix the Air Force Pilot Crisis,” 2025.
Article “Air Force Plans to Divest 250 Aircraft in 2025, Shrinking Fleet to New Low” – Air & Space Forces Magazine, March 2024.
Article “The US Air Force’s small, aging fleet is losing its edge over China” – Business Insider, September 2025.
2026 budget press release – plan to withdraw the A-10 Warthog fleet, US Air Force, June 2025.
Analysis “The A-10 Warthog is starting to ‘circle the drain’” – National Security Journal, July 2025.
Report “Air Force overhauls 2026 Budget: Full A-10 retirement” – Task & Purpose, June 2025.
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