Detailed analysis of Belgium’s plan to acquire 11 F-35As in 2025, the defense budget, the US choice over European options, and the industrial benefits.

In April 2025, Prime Minister Bart De Wever confirmed the intention to order 11 additional F-35A aircraft, bringing the future Belgian fleet to 45 aircraft. This decision aims to meet the NATO target of 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) spent on defense by 2025, well ahead of the initial deadline. The issue is sensitive: the estimated cost is between €1 billion and €1.5 billion, and the choice of American equipment has drawn criticism from the European industry, particularly with regard to the FCAS program.

The budgetary framework for Belgium’s military effort

In 2024, Belgium allocated 1.29% of GDP to defense, with a budget of approximately $8.6 billion (€7 billion). To reach 2% of GDP in 2025, the government plans to inject an additional €3.8 billion through exceptional revenues (taxes on frozen Russian assets, reclassification of public investments), loans, and targeted privatizations of public assets for a target amount of €3.2 billion. The defense budget will therefore reach approximately €12.8 billion in 2025, to be maintained until 2033. From 2034, the level will rise to 2.5% of GDP, with a target of 3.5% to 2% by 2035, in line with NATO’s recommendations at the 2025 summit in The Hague. However, nearly 20% of the defense budget is consumed by military pensions, reducing the margin for real operational investments. These commitments are already causing internal financial tensions, particularly with regard to the financing of social policies.

The acquisition of 11 F-35As: schedule, cost, and industrialization

The initial order for 34 F-35As, signed in 2018 for approximately $4 billion, included support, maintenance, and training until 2030. The aircraft are produced in Fort Worth, Texas; the first eight delivered are being used for US training at Luke AFB. In April 2025, the Belgian government officially launched the idea of adding 11 aircraft to consolidate the air-to-air capabilities of its air force. According to Minister Theo Francken, these 11 aircraft will be assembled in Europe, at the Cameri production center in Italy, as part of the international F-35 program. The cost is estimated at between €1 billion and €1.5 billion, representing an average unit price of around €80 million, including support and additional training. The contract is set to be signed in July 2025, with deliveries expected after the first wave. Initial service is expected to begin around 2027, with full operational capacity by 2030. This choice offers economic value for Europe, but does not alter its technological dependence on Lockheed Martin.

European cooperation in the face of the American choice: FCAS vs F-35

Since 2020, Belgium has been participating in the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program led by France, Germany, and Spain. A commitment of €300 million is planned to finance phase 2 (2026-2030) of development. Despite this, Dassault Aviation has criticized the choice of the F-35 as contradictory to the investment in FCAS. The government responds that Belgium can be a full partner in FCAS while relying on the F-35 to meet its short-term NATO obligations. The debate highlights the European industrial dilemma: encouraging a national fleet based on an American product while remaining involved in promising European programs. This dual commitment raises questions about strategic coherence and defense autonomy.

Industrial benefits and strategic position in Europe

The production of the new aircraft in Italy and the operational proximity to other European operators will provide technical and financial benefits for Belgian and European industry. The strategic plan also provides for a total investment of €34.8 billion between 2026 and 2034 to modernize military capabilities, including the air fleet, MQ-9B drones (third aircraft planned in 2027 for €254 million), and Piorun, NASAMS, and Skyranger anti-aircraft systems. The increase in personnel targets 34,500 military personnel by the end of 2034, compared with 26,200 at the beginning of 2025. The strengthening of the military reserve and the introduction of a one-year voluntary service in 2026 complete this structural change. Strategically, having 45 F-35As by 2030 will place Belgium among the European countries best equipped with fifth-generation aircraft capable of participating in demanding NATO missions. However, this requires ongoing efforts in training, logistical support, maintenance, and coordination with allies.

A strategic choice for Belgium

The decision to purchase additional F-35As is a clear signal of Euro-Atlantic integration. It responds to a pragmatic requirement: to quickly meet NATO standards on paper but also in terms of actual operational capability. However, dependence on a US aircraft limits the projection of technological sovereignty. Investing in FCAS later does not compensate for the lack of a European aircraft that is operational today. The increase to 2% of GDP is imposed by Brussels and Washington, but puts pressure on public finances and social protection. The Belgian compromise reflects a prioritization of immediate military credibility at the expense of long-term autonomous development. The question remains open: will such a choice really serve European interests or will it reinforce structural dependence on Washington?

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