Study of the modernization of the Chinese air force: personnel, fleet, logistical support, drones, doctrine, and future challenges analyzed.
The Chinese Air Force (PLAAF) has grown from 2,700 aircraft and 400,000 personnel in 2007 to approximately 2,284 aircraft and 403,000 personnel in 2025. It has replaced its conventional aircraft (J-6, J-7, Q-5) with 4th and 5th generation models, such as the stealth J-20, and modernized its H-6 bombers for long-range strike missions. The support fleet—refueling aircraft, heavy transporters, radar aircraft, drones—has grown significantly. The organizational structure has changed with theater commands, creating a unified air force that integrates naval missions. These changes give the PLAAF an increasingly credible strategic projection capability.
Changes in personnel and combat aircraft
The PLAAF had approximately 400,000 personnel and 2,700 combat aircraft in 2007. By 2025, it had reached 403,000 personnel with some 2,284 combat aircraft. This decrease reflects the rapid withdrawal of older generations, temporarily leaving the fleet with nearly 1,500 aircraft and 330,000 personnel before a gradual recovery.
Quality has replaced quantity. The J-6, J-7, J-8, and Q-5 have almost disappeared. They have been replaced by the Su-27/J-11, J-10, and the stealth J-20, which is unique in its category in Asia.
In figures, the J-20 has more than 200 aircraft in service, and production could reach 800 units by 2030.
Modernization of bombers and power projection
The number of H-6 bombers has remained stable (approximately 219 today compared to 222 in 2007), but their capabilities have been greatly enhanced. The new H-6N versions have turbofan engines, in-flight refueling, and the ability to launch long-range cruise missiles, including conventional or nuclear ballistic missiles derived from the DF-21.
The stealth H-20, still in development, is expected to take over nuclear missions. This build-up reflects the anti-access/area denial strategy against aircraft carriers and regional bases.
The rise of support and refueling aircraft
The PLAAF has invested heavily in logistics capabilities.
- YY-20A: nine refueling aircraft added in 2024, extending the range of fighters and bombers.
- Heavy transport: approximately 55 Y-20s, plus Y-8s and Y-9s for secondary missions.
- AWACS: from limited prototypes in 2007 to around 54 operational aircraft today, supporting strike missions and joint patrols with Russia.
These developments strengthen the PLAAF as a long-range projection force, despite a support ratio (17% today compared to 31% in the US Air Force) that remains low.
Drones and electronic warfare
The development of UAVs has accelerated: high-altitude HALE (WZ-7), MALE (BZK-005) and the GJ series, as well as strike drones. Jamming variants of the J-16 and Y-9 have entered service.
The man-machine combination is being tested: collaboration between drones and pilots is paving the way for an integrated digital anti-access force.
Organizational restructuring
The major reforms of 2015–2016 reorganized the force under theater commands. Tactical assets (fighters, etc.) are now divided among five of these commands, while bombers, transport and airborne troops remain under the High Command.
In 2023, the navy’s ground-based air units were integrated into the PLAAF, strengthening coastal defense and maritime strike missions.
This command coherence makes the response to regional conflicts faster and more comprehensive, under a single control.
From import to military self-sufficiency
In the early years, China depended on Russia for certain systems—Su-30, Su-35, radars. Today, most equipment is produced domestically: J-10, J-11B, J-20, and HQ-9 SAM inspired by the S-300. The S-400 is still in service, but in small numbers. Industrial and budgetary progress has made it possible to combine high technology without reducing overall personnel numbers.
Strategic trade-offs and challenges
According to the Saunders-Quam analytical framework, four trade-offs are decisive: missions vs. roles, domestic vs. foreign procurement, high technology vs. proven systems, combat vs. support. The leverage effect of the budget and the rise of Chinese industrial capacity have broken these initial trade-offs.
Nevertheless, logistical support remains weak (17%), limiting the scope of overseas operations.
Strategic pressure and the future
Growing Sino-US competition could prompt the PLAAF to accelerate its timetable. The caution of the last two decades, made possible by a relatively stable environment, could give way to a possible confrontation.
Future choices will focus on the mix of sixth-generation stealth fighters, H-20s, and less expensive platforms, as well as more air support (refueling, ISR). The balance between technical quality and volume capacity will remain decisive.
The current PLAAF is undergoing a transformation: fewer in number but technologically more powerful. This transformation strengthens its ability to defend national airspace, project power, and face future challenges in a world where regional tensions could harden.
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