Ottawa is reviewing its program for 88 F-35 fighter jets, faced with rising costs, delays, tensions with Washington, and alternatives such as the Saab Gripen.
Summary
Canada is engaged in an intense debate over the future of its military fighter fleet. Initially, Ottawa had confirmed the purchase of 88 F-35A fighter jets from Lockheed Martin to replace its CF-18 Hornets, as part of the Future Fighter Capability Project launched in 2017. This program, one of the most expensive for the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) in three decades, was expected to represent an investment of nearly $27.7 billion CAD according to the most recent estimates, compared to $19 billion announced in 2022. However, the contract review ordered in March 2025 has reignited discussions about alternatives, particularly the Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen E aircraft and mixed fleets. Trade and political tensions with the United States, combined with delivery delays and infrastructure challenges, are weighing on the final decision. Against this backdrop, the F-35 program remains uncertain, with only 16 aircraft firmly ordered and deliveries expected to begin in 2026, leaving several options open for Ottawa.
The Canadian F-35 program: history and objectives
The Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP) was initiated to replace the CF-18 Hornets, which entered service in the 1980s and have become technologically obsolete. After several years of competition, only two aircraft remained in the running: the American F-35A Lightning II and the Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen E. In 2022, the Canadian government officially chose the F-35A, planning to order 88 units to thoroughly modernize the RCAF fleet and maintain interoperability with its allies, particularly within NORAD and NATO.
This choice represented a major strategic investment: the purchase of these aircraft includes not only the aircraft themselves, but also weapons, logistics systems, pilot training, support infrastructure, and maintenance over several decades. The first F-35s were scheduled to arrive in training units in 2026, with a gradual ramp-up to full operational capability between 2032 and 2034. ## Sharp rise in costs and budgetary challenges
The purchase of 88 F-35s was originally estimated at $19 billion CAD, but more recent audits have revealed much higher costs, now approaching C$27.7 billion, an increase of nearly 46% over the initial estimate. This budget increase is due to several factors: exchange rate fluctuations, inflation in infrastructure and logistics costs, and unforeseen needs in training and technology integration.
Furthermore, these figures do not take into account the cost of ownership over the life of the program, which, according to some estimates, could reach several times the initial purchase price due to maintenance, modernization, and spare parts expenses over decades of operation.
This budgetary dynamic has fueled intense public and political debate, with some lawmakers and analysts highlighting the risk of even more significant cost overruns, while others emphasize the importance of having advanced air capabilities to ensure national security and sovereignty.
Delivery delays and infrastructure challenges
Beyond the costs, Canada faces significant delivery delays. While the 2022 agreement set the arrival of the first jets for 2025, the reality of production and certification chains has pushed back these dates. The first deliveries are now expected to begin in 2026, with the aircraft configured to the RCAF’s specific requirements.
At the same time, Ottawa must prepare significant ground infrastructure in Canada to accommodate these modern fighters. This includes facilities adapted to the technical requirements of the F-35, including special runways, flight simulators, spare parts depots, and onboard software management systems.
This adaptation work is costly and time-consuming, contributing to delays in the future fleet’s full operational capability. This situation also raises questions about the RCAF’s ability to ensure the transition without creating temporary gaps in its air defense capability.
Political tensions and relations with the United States
The review of the F-35 program was formalized by the Canadian government in March 2025, at a time when Ottawa and Washington were experiencing significant trade and political tensions, particularly over tariff threats and disputes on several bilateral issues. Some Canadian officials questioned the dependence on a weapons system controlled by an ally that exerts political pressure within the arms sales agreement itself.
This dynamic sparked debates about Canada’s strategic sovereignty. Some parliamentarians and experts believe that relying on an entirely American platform could, in a diplomatic crisis scenario, limit the country’s decision-making autonomy on its military commitments. Others point out that the F-35, due to its adoption by many allies, remains the best means of ensuring full operational integration within NORAD and NATO.
In response to the Canadian government’s review, US officials have publicly stated that reducing the F-35 order could “alter” shared continental defense arrangements and require adjustments to the doctrine of integration between the US and Canadian air forces.
The emergence of alternatives
As part of this debate, alternatives to the F-35 are being actively discussed. The most significant of these is the Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen E fighter jet, proposed with negotiations for local production and maintenance in Canada, as well as the complementary acquisition of GlobalEye, an advanced airborne surveillance system.
The Swedish proposal puts forward several arguments: lower acquisition and maintenance costs, opportunities for technology transfer and the creation of highly skilled jobs in the Canadian aerospace industry, and greater strategic independence. These factors appeal to certain politicians and industrialists who see the Gripen as a means of balancing costs, operational capability, and local economic benefits.
However, the question of a mixed fleet—combining F-35s and Gripens—raises significant technical, logistical, and budgetary challenges, particularly in terms of pilot training, maintenance, and the integration of different command and control systems.
Geopolitical impacts and defense issues
Canada’s choice will have implications for both its national defense policy and its international position. A continued commitment to the F-35 would strengthen interoperability with NATO allies and consolidate a strategic partnership with the United States. Conversely, a shift to the Gripen or a mixed fleet could signal a desire for greater strategic autonomy, while diversifying Canada’s international partnerships in the defense field.
The debate illustrates a broader question: how does a medium-sized Western country balance its security needs, alliance obligations, budget constraints, and industrial aspirations in a global context of rearmament and geopolitical uncertainty?
In this context, Ottawa’s final decision—whether to maintain its full F-35 order, reduce it, or opt for other suppliers—will shape Canada’s strategic trajectory for decades to come.
Sources
Reuters
Associated Press
Canada.ca – Department of National Defense
Department of National Defense – Future Fighter Capability Project
AeroTime
Defense Security Asia
Wikipedia – Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II Canadian procurement
Wikipedia – Saab JAS 39 Gripen
Procurement Office Canada
Glorious Canada – Facebook Post (public consultation)
Airforce Technology
Parliamentary Budget Officer Canada
CBC News – Politics
National Post – Defense & Security
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