In-depth discussions are underway between Turkey and the United States on Ankara’s possible return to the F-35 program, focusing on sanctions, the S-400 issue, and budgetary balances.
Summary
Talks between Turkey and the United States aim to resolve a crisis that has been ongoing since 2019 and allow Ankara to rejoin the F-35 fighter jet program. The US ambassador to Ankara, Tom Barrack, said that the discussions are the most solid they have been in a decade and that a “breakthrough” could occur in the coming months if Turkey renounces the use of its Russian S-400 systems. This legal requirement stems from US legislation that prevents a country in possession of these defense systems from accessing the F-35 program. The dispute had already led to Ankara’s exclusion from the consortium, economic sanctions, and a profound strategic readjustment in Turkish air capabilities. This opening comes at a time when Washington and Ankara are attempting to normalize their relations, while weighing the mutual budgetary, industrial, and security implications.
The original dispute over the F-35 and the S-400
The F-35 Lightning II program developed by Lockheed Martin is a key multinational project, central to the air defense of NATO and several allied countries. It is a fifth-generation fighter aircraft with advanced stealth capabilities, integrated sensors, and advanced network connectivity.
Turkey was an important partner in the program in the 2000s, supplying parts and integrating F-35s into its air force. In 2019, however, Washington excluded Ankara after it purchased Russian S-400 air defense systems. The United States and its allies believed that the joint operation of these systems with the F-35s could compromise sensitive technologies of the stealth fighter by providing Moscow with data on its performance.
Current US law stipulates that any country wishing to rejoin the F-35 program must neither operate nor possess the S-400s. This is the main legal obstacle that has blocked all previous attempts at formal reconciliation between Ankara and Washington on this issue.
Recent diplomatic discussions and their implications
According to Ambassador Tom Barrack, the personal and political relationship between US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has created a more conducive atmosphere for dialogue on the F-35 issue. Barrack spoke of “very fruitful conversations” and possible substantial progress in the coming months, provided that US security requirements are met.
These statements come after a meeting at the White House in September where the subject had already been discussed, and where Trump had indicated that he could reverse the exclusion if certain conditions were lifted.
For Ankara, the prospect of a return to the F-35 program is more than a diplomatic symbol: it represents a major strategic positioning for the modernization of its air force. Regaining this position would mean the possibility of purchasing additional F-35s, strengthening its defense industry, and aligning its capabilities with those of its NATO partners. However, one point of friction remains: Turkey claims it does not want to integrate the S-400s into NATO’s command system, but has not yet announced any concrete measures to divest itself of them.
Impact on Turkish air strategy and alternatives
Exclusion from the F-35 program has forced Ankara to fundamentally revise its military procurement policy. Turkey has stepped up its efforts to obtain modernized F-16 aircraft, an older but proven model, with Washington’s recent agreement following political concessions on other issues.
At the same time, Ankara has supported the development of its own fifth-generation fighter jet, the TAI TF-X Kaan, designed to replace the F-16s and offer greater technological independence in the long term. This program represents a multi-billion dollar investment and aims for initial industrial deployment within the current decade.
These choices reflect a multi-pronged strategy: not to depend exclusively on a single foreign manufacturer, while seeking to maintain advanced air superiority capabilities. In this context, reintegration into the F-35 program would complement, rather than replace, Turkey’s modernization plans.
Implications for US defense and NATO
For the United States, reopening the door to Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program is a decision that combines geopolitical, industrial, and budgetary considerations. First, Turkish participation would improve the industrial cohesion of the multinational program, reducing certain unit costs through economies of scale and reintegrating a previously significant contributor to the supply chain.
Second, it would signify a political and strategic arrangement within NATO that would weaken Turkey’s ties with defense system suppliers considered contrary to alliance standards. The retention of the S-400s, in particular, continues to be seen in Washington and many NATO capitals as a vulnerability that could represent a blind spot in the collective defense posture.
Third, the prospect of a rapprochement between Ankara and Washington in the defense aerospace sector could also send a signal to other potential F-35 partners, such as Saudi Arabia and India, with whom discussions or interests have emerged in recent years.
Budgets and associated costs
The F-35 program is one of the most expensive weapons projects in history, with an estimated total cost of several billion dollars over its lifetime. This includes development, production, logistical support, and fleet upgrades for versions A, B, and C of the fighter.
For Turkey, joining the program initially represented a significant contribution both financially and industrially, with contracts for local Turkish suppliers. Before its exclusion, Ankara had invested approximately $1.4 billion in the program.
A return would mean not only the possibility of additional purchases of F-35 aircraft, each costing tens of millions of dollars depending on the version and onboard equipment, but also access to maintenance, spare parts, and extended support contracts. This could weigh on Turkey’s defense budgets, already constrained by internal economic pressures and the need to simultaneously finance the development of the TF-X.
Political issues and next steps
One of the crucial political issues will remain the question of sanctions imposed under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which affected Turkish defense entities after the purchase of the S-400s. Lifting these sanctions or finding a legal mechanism to circumvent them is a complex challenge, both in terms of US law and national political perceptions on both sides.
The coming months will be decisive. Turkish and US officials will have to clarify not only the future of the F-35 aircraft, but also how Turkey will circumvent or end its dependence on Russian systems. This will have significant consequences for future European and Middle Eastern defense architectures, the global arms industry, and internal dynamics within NATO.
Sources
Reuters, “Turkey in talks to rejoin US F-35 fighter jet program, envoy says” (Reuters).
Aviation Week, “F-35 Talks With Turkey Could See ‘Breakthrough,’ U.S. Ambassador Says”.
AA News, “F-35: Washington hopes for a ‘breakthrough’ with Ankara”.
Associated Press, US ambassador to Ankara comments on F-35 ban resolution.
Zonebourse/Reuters, translated article on F-35 and S-400 discussions.
Forces News, report on ongoing talks between US and Turkey.
Wikipedia, pages Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, TAI TF-X Kaan, General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon.
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