Iran is looking to modernize its aging air fleet by acquiring state-of-the-art fighter jets from Russia. However, many obstacles stand in the way of this quest, including economic constraints, geopolitical concerns and the reluctance of Russia and China to supply such equipment.

Iran aspires to bolster its air capacity by acquiring modern fighter jets from Russia, but this quest faces a series of obstacles. While Iran has recently received Russian-made Yakovlev Yak-130 trainer aircraft, these light aircraft do not meet its crucial need for twin-engine air superiority fighters, such as the Sukhoi Su-35. This article examines the reasons behind these obstacles and explores the consequences for Iran and the region.

Obstacles to the acquisition of modern warfighters

The Iranian economy and international sanctions

One of the main reasons why Iran is finding it difficult to acquire modern fighter jets is the state of its economy, exacerbated by international sanctions. Iran’s economic challenges make it difficult to obtain favorable purchasing terms. Moreover, its preference for paying in oil and natural gas rather than dollars or euros complicates negotiations with China, its other potential option.

Reluctance on the part of Russia and China

Russia and China, although Iran’s allies in many areas, are reluctant to supply modern fighter jets to Teheran. China, for example, is more focused on the profitability of arms sales than on direct military support. Russia, for its part, seems to lack negotiating leverage with Iran, and is concerned about geopolitical considerations and regional stability.

Relations with Arab countries in the region

Another key factor contributing to Russia’s and China’s caution is the delicate balance of their relations with the Arab countries of the Middle East. Iran’s Arab neighbors are strongly opposed to Iran acquiring modern fighter jets, fearing that this would upset the balance of power in the region. This concern has prompted Russia and China to act cautiously so as not to jeopardize their trade relations with these key Arab partners.

The implications of these obstacles

The urgent need to modernize Iran’s air fleet

Iran faces a pressing need to modernize its aging air fleet. Some of its fighter jets are over fifty years old, and the situation has become critical. Iran’s F-4 and F-5 aircraft are older models, and even the F-14, one of its most advanced aircraft, was acquired before the 1979 Islamic revolution. As a result, Iran is limited in its supply options and relies mainly on Russia and China.

Likely supply limitations

Even if Russia and China were to consider supplying Iran with newer fighter jets, it is likely that the number would be limited to avoid posing a major threat to Tehran’s regional rivals. Russia itself only owns around 110 to 150 Sukhoi Su-35s, which means that its exports of these aircraft would be rare.

Prospects for improvement

Ongoing negotiations with the USA and the EU?

There are signs that the United States and the European Union may be softening their stance on Iran’s acquisition of modern fighter jets. Behind-the-scenes negotiations between Teheran and Washington could help pave the way for an agreement. Although the exact date for delivery of the Su-35s remains uncertain, some believe it would be logical for this to happen after sanctions expire in October.

A justified wait?

The arrival of two Yak-130 trainer aircraft in Iran has been interpreted by the regime’s media as proof that Russia will eventually supply Iran with its modern warplanes. Some analysts have suggested that the conflict in Ukraine may have disrupted the delivery of the Su-35s, causing delays.

Iran faces significant obstacles in its quest to acquire modern fighter jets, including economic constraints, geopolitical concerns and the reluctance of its allies, Russia and China, to supply such equipment. Modernization of its air fleet is essential, given the advanced age of its current aircraft. Although signs of ongoing negotiations with the United States and the European Union may raise hopes, Iran’s future in this area remains uncertain. The Middle East region will continue to monitor developments closely as Iran pursues its quest for air superiority.

Fly a jet fighter is the fighter jet experience specialist.