Belgium has announced its intention to supply F-16s to Ukraine starting in 2025, a decision seen as a political compromise within the Belgian government coalition. This announcement raises questions about the timeline for the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine amid ongoing tensions in the region. This article provides a detailed analysis of Belgium’s decision to provide F-16s to Ukraine, including the reasons behind the decision, potential consequences, and the international context.

On October 11, Belgium ended its wavering stance on sending F-16s to Ukraine, a decision that will not be implemented until 2025. This decision has sparked discussions about its implications for Ukraine’s situation and Belgium’s domestic politics. In this article, we will thoroughly analyze Belgium’s decision, its underlying factors, potential consequences, and the broader international context.

Belgium’s Decision

The Belgian government has announced its intention to supply an undisclosed number of F-16 fighters to Ukraine, starting in 2025. This decision follows a period of uncertainty within the Belgian government coalition. Prime Minister Alexander De Croo confirmed this decision after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Brussels.

However, it’s essential to note that this decision must still be confirmed by the next Belgian government, which will be elected in May next year. Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder explained that the specifics of the agreement would depend on Belgium’s progress in its F-35 capabilities, the successor to the F-16.

Implications of the Agreement

The agreement also includes the training of Ukrainian pilots and mission planners, scheduled to begin in 2024. Two Belgian companies, Sabena Engineering and Patria Bec, will provide essential technical support to the F-16 fleet. Belgium joined a coalition of twelve other countries providing F-16 training in September. Currently, Belgium has 53 F-16s in its inventory.

However, the agreement raises questions about the delivery timeline. With a planned service date in 2025, some observers believe Ukraine would have preferred to receive these aircraft sooner, given the ongoing situation in the country.

The International Context

It’s crucial to place this decision in the international context. In 2018, Belgium signed a multi-billion-dollar contract with Lockheed Martin for the supply of 34 F-35 fighter jets to replace its aging F-16s. However, delays in the delivery of these aircraft have already been observed.

According to Alain De Neve, a researcher at the Belgian-based Royal Higher Institute for Defense think tank, only two out of the initial four F-35s are expected to be delivered in the first quarter of 2024. This situation could complicate the transition from F-16s to F-35s, especially as Belgium must maintain an operational aircraft fleet, particularly for joint missions in the Baltic countries.

Belgium participates in airspace surveillance as part of NATO’s enhanced vigilance activities and the Baltic Air Policing mission. It was also one of the first international customers of the F-16, receiving its first deliveries over 40 years ago.

Reactions and Questions

The news that the aircraft will not reach Ukraine for another two years has disappointed some observers, given Ukrainian officials’ strong lobbying for these weapons to arrive quickly in the conflict-affected country.

For Alain De Neve, it is somewhat surprising that Belgium has been singled out on this issue. He emphasizes that Belgium made this decision as part of a political compromise, in line with the complex dynamics of the government coalition.

However, he points out that Belgium is not the only country that has made promises of F-16 deliveries to Ukraine. As early as January 2023, the Netherlands indicated their willingness to deliver F-16s, pending U.S. approval, which was granted in the spring. This means that ten months have passed since the first delivery promises were made, and no aircraft have yet been transferred to Ukrainian forces.

The Future of the Situation

In recent months, government officials have discussed the growing possibility that the Russia-Ukraine conflict could turn into a frozen conflict, potentially lasting several years to a decade.

Belgium’s decision to provide F-16s to Ukraine starting in 2025 has raised questions and debates both at the national and international levels. It reflects political compromises within the Belgian government coalition and underscores the challenges of transitioning from F-16s to F-35s. The impact of this decision on the situation in Ukraine and the evolution of the ongoing conflict remains closely watched, as Belgium and other countries strive to find a balance between their international commitments and operational constraints.

Fly a jet fighter is the fighter jet experience specialist.