Analysis of the impact of low-cost drones on 5th generation fighter aircraft and the future of air power.

In brief

Low-cost drones are upsetting the balance of air power. Recently, Ukrainian forces potentially destroyed a Russian Su-57, a 5th generation fighter jet, with drones. This development shows how drones, although considerably less expensive, can inflict significant damage on high-tech military equipment, thereby redefining air warfare strategies.

The rise of drones

Since the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, drones have played a prominent role on the battlefield. The first days of the conflict saw the use of TB2 Bayraktar drones, supplied by Turkey, which were decisive for the Ukrainian forces. To this was added an informal group of Ukrainian drone enthusiasts who, via messaging applications such as WhatsApp, informed the army of Russian positions.

The situation has changed radically, with long-range drone attacks on Russian territory becoming an almost daily occurrence. Drones have damaged or destroyed valuable Russian aircraft, including strategic bombers (Tu-22M3 and Tu-95MS), transport aircraft (Il-76, possibly a variant tanker), amphibious aircraft (Beriev Be-200), and potentially an AWACS (Beriev A50U), as well as various fighter jets.

The implications of these losses are significant. For example, the Tu-95MS, a strategic bomber weighing over 50 tonnes, represents a cost of several tens of millions of euros. The loss of such an aircraft to far less expensive drones demonstrates the effectiveness of drones in modern conflicts.

Drones versus 5th generation fighter jets

The most striking case is undoubtedly the probable destruction of the Su-57, Russia’s 5th generation fighter. The Su-57, designed to rival aircraft such as the American F-35, is a concentrate of advanced technologies in terms of stealth, avionics and weapons systems. Its production cost is estimated at around €30 million per unit.

The destruction of an Su-57 by a Ukrainian drone, which could cost around €90,000, demonstrates a major economic and strategic imbalance. This cost asymmetry highlights a new form of warfare in which less expensive technologies can inflict significant losses on cutting-edge military equipment.

Protecting air bases

The vulnerability of fighter aircraft on the ground to drone attacks highlights the need to strengthen air base protection. The Su-57s, for example, would probably have been preserved if they had been stationed in hardened shelters. Russian air bases are starting to build new shelters, but these are more like light hangars than truly hardened structures capable of withstanding drone strikes.

The current war shows that even the most advanced fighter aircraft are not safe when they are on the ground. Protecting aircraft in operation requires investment in appropriate infrastructure, such as hardened shelters, integrated air defence systems and electronic countermeasures.

Drone warfare: a new era

Drones don’t just attack targets on the ground; they also clash in the air. Ukrainian drones have shown that they can shoot down Russian drones in mid-air, adding a new dimension to aerial conflict. This development calls for a rethink of air defence strategies and the introduction of systems capable of detecting and neutralising air threats at several levels.

At the same time, the rapid evolution of drone technologies requires constant adaptation. Today’s drones are more autonomous, equipped with advanced detection systems and capable of carrying out complex missions. They can operate in swarms, making them more difficult to intercept and destroy.

The economics of drone warfare

One of the main reasons for the effectiveness of drones is their cost. Compared with the cost of a 5th generation fighter jet, the price of a drone is derisory. For example, while a Su-57 costs around €30 million, an Aeroprakt A-22 Foxbat drone costs just €90,000. This cost difference makes it possible to envisage swarm attacks, where several drones are launched simultaneously to overwhelm the enemy’s defences.

This cost-effective strategy is particularly relevant in the context of a protracted war, where resources need to be managed carefully. Thanks to their low cost and proven effectiveness, drones offer a viable and economically sustainable alternative to traditional fighter aircraft.

Future implications for air power

The increasing use of drones in armed conflicts heralds profound changes in military strategy and tactics. The destruction of expensive equipment by cheap drones is forcing nations to reassess their defence investments and adapt their military doctrines.

Air forces must incorporate drones into their arsenals, not only as reconnaissance or strike tools, but also as a means of defence against other drones. Countries will also have to invest in anti-drone technologies, such as electronic warfare systems and lasers, to protect their strategic assets.

Towards a new air strategy

In short, drones are redefining the rules of aerial warfare. The probable destruction of a Russian Su-57 by Ukrainian drones demonstrates that modern conflicts require a new approach, where agility and innovation take precedence over the simple deployment of costly technologies. The economic, strategic and technological implications of this development are vast, and armed forces around the world need to adapt quickly to deal with this new reality.

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