Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine has led to a marked decline in its influence in the global arms market. While some countries, such as India, are beginning to turn to other suppliers, Russia faces considerable challenges in maintaining its market position, jeopardizing its traditional geopolitical role.

In a world where geopolitical power is often synonymous with military capability, arms exports can serve as a barometer for measuring a nation’s influence. Recently, Russia has seen its dominant position in this field seriously undermined. From damaged relations with major customers to notorious failures of new weapons technologies, the repercussions go far beyond mere financial losses. In this article, we explore the various dimensions of this collapse and its potential implications on the world stage.

A generalized loss of confidence: key players change course

India: a long-standing customer moves away

For years, India has been the main customer for Russian arms exports. However, relations between the two countries have been fraught with friction, mainly due to India’s growing disappointment with the quality and reliability of Russian armaments. Incidents such as the explosion of a Russian-built submarine in 2013 and setbacks surrounding the acquisition of a Russian aircraft carrier have eroded India’s confidence.

This mistrust has recently manifested itself in arms contracts signed with Western companies, signalling a potential change of dynamic in Russian-Indian relations. Agreements to acquire Scorpene-class submarines and Dassault Rafale fighter jets from France are tangible proof of this.

Iran and Serbia: Fragile Alliances

Russia, in its quest to maintain its influence, has also encountered obstacles with other notable partners. In Iran, despite an agreement for the delivery of Su-35 fighter jets, deadlines remain uncertain, reflecting Russia’s reluctance to offend other important regional players, such as Israel.

Similarly, Serbia, a traditional Russian ally, appears to be diversifying its arms supplies, turning increasingly to Western suppliers. Recent purchases of Dassault Rafale jets and Mistral missiles from France bear witness to this, signalling a possible reorientation of Serbian foreign policy.

Technological Failure: The Failure of Russia’s “Invincible Weapons

Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin regularly extolled the prowess of Russia’s new hypersonic weapons. These weapons were touted as invincible and capable of thwarting all Western anti-aircraft defenses. However, these claims appear to have been greatly exaggerated.

The reality of the battlefield has exposed the limitations and failures of these supposedly advanced weapons. Incidents such as the successful interception of Kinzhal missiles by a Ukrainian Patriot defense system have dented the reputation of the new Russian weapons, calling into question their effectiveness and reliability.

Future Outlook: Likely Scenarios and Implications

An uncertain future for the Russian arms market

In the short term, Russia faces immense challenges in maintaining its position in the global arms market. International sanctions and supply problems are severely hampering Russia’s ability to produce and export modern weapons. Failures on the Ukrainian battlefield only aggravate this situation, highlighting the shortcomings of Russian weapons.

Long-term consequences: an industry in crisis

In the long term, Russia faces serious structural problems that threaten to further undermine its military industry. Deteriorating relations with key suppliers of military technology, such as Ukraine, are complicating modernization efforts. In addition, the corruption and nepotism that plague the sector raise serious questions about Russia’s ability to produce reliable, high-performance weapons systems in the future.

A Superpower in Decline?

Russia, once a dominant player in the global armaments market, seems to be on the wane. Recent geopolitical conflicts have not only weakened its market position, but also revealed significant shortcomings in its military industry.

Countries that were once loyal customers are starting to look elsewhere, seeking more reliable and technologically advanced alternatives. Even in the best-case scenario, where Russia manages to negotiate a favorable outcome to the current conflict, rebuilding its military industry would be a Herculean task.

Russia is facing a significant erosion of its geopolitical influence. Its ability to influence world events through its arms exports is in decline, a trend that shows no sign of reversing in the near future.

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