Tensions rise between India and Pakistan after air strikes and the loss of fighter jets, including Rafale aircraft.

The India-Pakistan Conflict of May 2025: Analysis of Recent Events

The Origins of the Escalation

On April 22, 2025, an armed attack targeted a group of vacationers in the Baisaran Valley, near Pahalgam, in the Anantnag district of Indian-administered Kashmir. Five armed men opened fire on around 40 tourists, killing 26 people and wounding 20 others. The victims were mainly Hindu citizens, as well as one Christian and one local Muslim. The attackers deliberately targeted non-Muslims, using religious criteria to identify their targets. One of the first to die was a local driver who tried to disarm a gunman.

The militant group The Resistance Front (TRF), suspected of being an operational branch of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), initially claimed responsibility for the attack before retracting its claim a few days later. India immediately accused Lashkar-e-Taiba, a group believed to be supported by Pakistan. The investigation launched by the National Investigation Agency (NIA) uncovered evidence pointing to coordination between the attackers and cells based in Muzaffarabad (Pakistani Kashmir) and Karachi. Intercepted communications and digital evidence suggest indirect involvement by the ISI, Pakistan’s military intelligence service. A key suspect identified is Hashim Musa, a former Pakistani non-commissioned officer who went underground after joining LeT.

In direct response to this attack, India launched Operation Sindoor in the night of May 6 to 7, 2025, between 1:05 and 1:30 a.m. The operation mobilized Rafale and Mirage-2000 fighter jets and SkyStriker drones to strike nine targets in Pakistani territory and in Pakistani-administered Kashmir. The strikes targeted facilities in Bahawalpur, Muridke, Muzaffarabad and rural areas of the Neelum Valley. India claims to have used SCALP missiles and AASM Hammer bombs, targeting only training camps and logistics warehouses.

The repercussions of the strikes

Pakistan has described the operation as a “violation of sovereignty” and an “act of war.” The Pakistani Ministry of Defense has announced that 31 civilians were killed, including at least 12 women and children, and 57 wounded. Residential buildings, two mosques, and a school were reportedly damaged, according to local authorities. Islamabad denies that any armed groups were present in the targeted areas. India, for its part, claims to have taken all necessary precautions to avoid civilian casualties and asserts that all targets had been confirmed by satellite imagery.

Air Losses

In the hours following the operation, Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian aircraft: three Rafales, one MiG-29, and one Sukhoi SU-30, as well as a Heron TP surveillance drone. The announcement was relayed by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Pakistani army’s communications service, without immediate material evidence.

Aircraft debris was photographed in several areas of the Srinagar Valley and in Rawalakot. The identification of the wreckage remains uncertain. No official confirmation has been provided by India. If the Rafale losses are confirmed, these would be the first combat losses for this aircraft since it entered service in India in 2019. Analysts believe that a failure of electronic countermeasures or engagement too close to Pakistani lines could explain these losses, if confirmed.

International Reactions

The international community has expressed its immediate concern. The United States, China, Russia, and the European Union have called for de-escalation. Diplomatic channels have been activated, notably via the Swiss ambassador in Islamabad and the British High Commission in Delhi. Analysts fear a military escalation between two nuclear powers with significant armed forces: India has around 1.4 million active military personnel, while Pakistan has 650,000.

The consequences for civilians

Since May 7, the Line of Control (LoC) has been the scene of intense artillery exchanges. At least 11 Indian civilians and 8 Pakistani civilians are reported to have been killed in the crossfire. Several villages have been evacuated, mainly in the districts of Kupwara (India) and Kotli (Pakistan). More than 15,000 people have been displaced to temporary shelters. Commercial flights to Srinagar, Leh, and Gilgit have been suspended. Schools within a 15-kilometer radius of the LoC are closed indefinitely.

The situation remains unstable, with a real risk of escalating into a wider military confrontation if diplomatic negotiations fail.

Technical analysis of events

Indian air force capabilities

India has a diversified air force combining Western and Russian-made fighter jets. The core of its power lies in three main platforms involved in Operation Sindoor:

• Rafale: India has ordered 36 Rafale aircraft from Dassault Aviation, to be delivered between 2020 and 2022. This multi-role aircraft can carry out air-to-ground strikes, reconnaissance missions, and air superiority missions. It is equipped with SCALP-EG missiles with a range of 500 km, AASM Hammer guided bombs, and Meteor air-to-air missiles. The Rafale also has a RBE2-AA electronic scanning radar and SPECTRA electronic warfare systems.
• Sukhoi SU-30MKI: Derived from the Russian SU-30, this heavy twin-engine jet is the Indian Air Force’s main fighter (more than 260 in service). It can carry BrahMos missiles (supersonic air-to-ground version) and jamming pods, and has a very long range (3,000 km without refueling).
• MiG-29UPG: This refurbished model features modernized avionics, a Zhuk-ME radar, and in-flight refueling capabilities. It is mainly deployed for air superiority.

The reported loss of these three types of aircraft, particularly the Rafale, calls into question radar coverage in border areas and the effectiveness of electronic countermeasures in contested environments. If these losses are confirmed, they signal either overconfidence in jamming systems or a flaw in inter-service coordination with air defense units.

Pakistan’s defense capabilities

Pakistan relies on a mix of Chinese and Chinese-Pakistani aircraft for its air defense. The following aircraft were reportedly mobilized to intercept Indian aircraft:

• Chengdu J-10C: This 4th generation fighter, equipped with an AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar, is compatible with long-range PL-15 missiles. Capable of flying at Mach 2, it has high maneuverability and an onboard electronic self-protection system.
• JF-17 Thunder Block III: Developed jointly with China, this single-engine aircraft is produced locally. It uses KLJ-7A radars and can carry PL-10 and PL-15 missiles. Its low cost allows for large-scale production, compensating for its lower performance compared to the Rafale.
• SAM networks: Pakistan also has a ground-to-air defense network incorporating the Chinese LY-80 system, with tracking radars and a range of 40 km. Mobile units equipped with MANPADS (portable missiles) complete this system.

The combination of AESA radar aircraft, long-range missiles and mobile radar stations could explain the ability to effectively engage Indian aircraft in an area reputed to be under Indian radar control.

Outlook and recommendations

For military and political authorities

• Reassessment of penetration doctrines: The suspected air losses indicate that tactical patterns for entering Pakistani airspace need to be reviewed, particularly in terms of flight altitude, speed, and EW (electronic warfare) coverage.
• Joint coordination: Integration between aviation, surveillance satellites, ground-to-air artillery, and electronic warfare units must be strengthened, especially in a high-electromagnetic-density theater.
• Controlled communication: In the absence of clear official communication, rumors spread quickly. Strategic information management is essential to maintain credibility and avoid misinformation.
• Mediated bilateral dialogue: Neutral channels must be mobilized to reestablish security and logistical dialogue, including de-escalation mechanisms at the border.

For populations in sensitive areas

• Follow safety instructions: Civilians within a 20-kilometer radius of the Line of Control must strictly comply with alerts and instructions from the authorities. Targeted evacuations may be necessary in the short term.
• Emergency supplies: Stocks of medicines, fuel, and drinking water must be built up in rural areas exposed to logistical disruptions.
• Access to verified information: In a context of information warfare, national and local media must only relay information that has been validated by the civil or military authorities in order to avoid panic and unpredictable mass behavior.

As things stand, the regional military balance remains stable, but a miscalculation or a misinterpreted strike could tip the confrontation into an uncontrollable phase.

The situation between India and Pakistan in May 2025 represents a significant escalation of tensions in the Kashmir region. The human and material losses underscore the need for a peaceful resolution and open dialogue between the two nations to avoid a major crisis.

Get in touch to live a unique fighter jet experience – we fly in France AND YOU CAN TAKE THE CONTROLS!!!